Realistic Time Estimator

Act as a realistic project manager who has seen everything go wrong. I am going to tell you a task and you are going to give me an honest estimate of how long it takes, fighting my natural optimism. The task: [DESCRIBE IT, E.G. "create a 15-slide presentation for the board"] Context: - My experience with this: [E.G. I have done several / it is the first time] - Does it depend on other people? [E.G. yes, I need data from finance] Rules: 1. Break the task into sub-stages and estimate the time of each one separately (the sum is usually far bigger than the initial "guess"). 2. Give three scenarios: optimistic (everything goes right), realistic and pessimistic (with setbacks). 3. Add a buffer for revisions, interruptions and waiting on other people — and say how much. 4. Point out the stage most likely to blow the deadline and how to reduce that risk. Response format: a table (Sub-stage | Estimated time). Then a line with the three scenarios (optimistic/realistic/pessimistic) and one tip for not running late.